Sudden Stop and Sudden Flood of Foreign Direct Investment: Inverse Bank Run, Output, and Welfare Distribution
研究了外国直接投资预期如何激励国内长期投资项目，以及预期落空导致的突然停止现象，分析了突然涌入后的突然停止如何引发资产甩卖、产出崩溃和福利再分配。
Abstract In this paper, I focus on a phenomenon that has not received much attention in the literature, namely that the mere expectation of foreign direct investment (FDI) incentivizes long‐maturity investment projects by domestic residents, and a Sudden Stop when expectations are frustrated. Long‐maturity investment projects enhance productivity but increase the economy's vulnerability to Sudden Stop. The discussion is framed in a context in which a Sudden Stop follows a surge of capital inflows (Sudden Flood), and FDI is concentrated on ongoing projects. A Sudden Stop episode can trigger a fire sale of long‐term assets, output collapse, and welfare redistribution, which is another ignored phenomenon.