The Future Price of Houses, Mortgage Market Conditions, and the Returns to Homeownership
构建了一个生命周期模型，分析在资本市场不完美的情况下，预期未来房价上涨如何影响当前购房决策，并探讨了抵押贷款市场条件、流动性约束等因素的作用。
The purpose of this paper is to provide a simple framework in which to analyze the impact of a perfectly anticipated increase in the future selling price of houses on current house purchase decisions in the presence of capital market imperfections. Since, implicitly, it is the after-tax selling price of houses that is considered, this analysis is equivalent to one of a decrease in the capital gains tax on houses at retirement. In this paper assumptions about homeownership, mortgage markets, and liquidity constraints are added to a life cycle model of asset accumulation, taking the date of house purchase as exogenous. It is shown that the impact of an exogenous increase in the expected future price of houses depends on current mortgage market conditions, the future price of houses relative to the current price, and the ratio of liquid assets to future labor income, as well as preferences. Also, a simple model of a market for houses is presented to analyze the impact of an increase in the expected future price of houses on the current market-clearing price, the mortgage market, and the redistribution of the housing stock to consumers according to their wealth and liquidity characteristics. In the life cycle model as exposited by Franco Modigliani and Robert Brumberg, an increase in consumption in one period requires a decrease in consumption in another period. When owner-occupied housing is added to the model the tradeoff between consumption in different periods becomes more complex. Purchasing a larger house entails an increase in the consumption of housing services and an increase in assets held in the form of a house, but a decrease in either nonhousing consumption or the holdings of an alternative asset, or both. The response of the consumer to price or income changes is also limited by financial market constraints. Capital market imperfections have been introduced into the life cycle model by a number of authors (see, for example, Lester Thurow, Thayer Watkins, Thomas Russell, Clark Wiseman, and Christopher Pissarides). And, several authors have explicitly considered the impact of capital market imperfections on the house purchase decision (see William Dolde and James Tobin, William Poole, Donald Lessard and Modigliani, and Dolde). Most similar to this study, although developed independently, Roland Artle and P. Varaiya's paper includes the theoretical incorporation of the house-purchase decision into a life cycle model. They consider the problem of choosing the date of house purchase while treating the level of consumption of housing services as exogenous. In the life cycle model in this paper, the consumer chooses the size of house to purchase at an exogenous date. To use the life cycle model in the framework of a market of houses, it is assumed that the stock of houses and the prices of all other goods, including the rate of return on the alternative asset, are fixed. All consumers are identical, except perhaps for initial wealth. As noted by Irving Fisher (p. 325), in a world of perfect foresight and perfect markets the rates of return on all assets are equated in equilibrium. If markets are perfect, with the stock of houses and other prices fixed, the present price of houses will rise by an amount equal to the present value of an exogenous increase in a future price of houses. When mortgage market imperfections are introduced, this relationship no longer holds, and a future price increase may result in a redistribution of the current stock *Assistant professor of economics, University of Michigan. This paper is an extension of a chapter of my doctoral thesis at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. The helpful comments of Donald D. Hester, Charles A. Wilson, Hal Varian, and George Borts are gratefully acknowledged.