The Outlook for U.S. Agriculture: Entering a New Era
美国农业进入风险与回报并存的新时代，1995年提出的农业法案将逐步减少政府补贴，同时赋予农民更多种植灵活性，而世界商品市场前景看好，但畜牧业面临低价格和高饲料成本的困境。
U.S. agriculture appears to be passing into a new era marked by both greater risk and potentially greater rewards. Proposed legislation would lower the government safety net that for decades has supported farm incomes and reduced the risk of farming. If signed into law by the President, the proposed farm bill would phase down government payments to farmers over the next seven years, but in exchange would give farmers more flexibility to plant the crops that take best advantage of market opportunities. That switch in policy will occur just as the industry faces the brightest prospects in world commodity markets in decades. U.S. crop prices closed out 1995 at the highest levels in years, in part due to a surge in U.S. agricultural exports. The year just past set the stage for the new period ahead. The farm legislation proposed by Congress in 1995 would mark a watershed in farm policy, leading farmers to rethink what they produce and creating potentially big shifts in farm production across the nation. Another major development in 1995 was a shortfall in U.S. crop production. With stocks already low when 1995 began, the year’s crops were crucial in determining whether grain stocks would be restored to the ample levels that have prevailed through most of the 1990s. In the end, the shortfall in production appears to have created tight market conditions that now might hold for an extended period. U.S. farm income was up slightly in 1995, as rising grain prices offset another year of losses in the livestock industry. U.S. agriculture should have a better year in 1996, although poor livestock profits will restrain gains in income. Crop producers will benefit from strong world markets and potentially modest cutbacks in government payments next year. But the livestock industry will be hurt by continued low prices and high feed costs. Cattle ranchers and hog producers will probably be hurt the most. Problems in the livestock industry could moderate as 1996 wears on, however, if normal-sized crops lead to a decline in feed prices. In the longer run, agriculture’s outlook will be driven by the major developments of 1995—a new course for agricultural policy and a bullish turn in world food markets.