Analyst Pessimism and Forecast Timing
研究发现，相对悲观的分析师倾向于更晚发布盈利预测，这种时机效应解释了预测期内共识预测乐观偏差下降的很大一部分原因，有助于理解长期预测为何比短期预测更乐观。
Abstract In this study, we show that on average relatively pessimistic analysts tend to reveal their earnings forecasts later than other analysts. Further, we find this forecast timing effect explains a substantial proportion of the well‐known decrease in consensus analyst forecast optimism over the forecast period prior to earnings announcements, which helps explain why analysts’ longer term earnings forecasts are more optimistically biased than their shorter term forecasts. We extend the theory of analyst self‐selection regarding their coverage decisions to argue that analysts with a relatively pessimistic view–compared to other analysts–are more reluctant to issue their earnings forecasts, with the result that they tend to defer revealing their earnings forecasts until later in the forecasting period than other analysts.