The Effect of Tax-Transfer Policies on Fertility in Canada, 1921-88
利用1921-1988年加拿大时间序列数据，估计了子女个人税收豁免、儿童税收抵免、家庭津贴和产假福利对生育率的影响，发现这些政策均显著正向影响生育率，且结果稳健。
This paper estimates the effect on fertility of the personal tax exemption for children, child tax credit, family allowances, and maternity leave benefits in Canada using time-series data from 1921 to 1988. It is found that the exemption, child tax credit, and family allowances all have significant and positive effects on fertility; the results are robust to a variety of specifications including first-differencing. While the three tax-transfer programs seem to be very distinct, the null hypothesis that they have no differential effects on fertility can hardly be rejected. All the results also hold for the cumulative effect of the three tax-transfer programs. The estimates predict that a large increase in the value of the tax-transfer programs would be needed to increase fertility to the replacement level.