Why Do Central Banks Monitor So Many Inflation Indicators
研究了中央银行为何监测大量经济指标，通过多国实证检验单一指标预测通胀的可靠性，发现没有指标始终可靠，支持多指标监测的决策方式。
Monetary policy is typically undertaken with an eye to achieving a select few objectives in the long run. The Federal Reserve conducts monetary policy to promote two long-run goals: price stability and sustainable economic growth. In many other countries, central banks have a single long-run goal defined in terms of an inflation target. Yet while central banks have narrowly defined long-run goals, most monitor a wide range of economic indicators.> Why do central banks collect and analyze so many indicators? Kozicki presents multicountry empirical evidence to assess whether any single indicator reliably predicts inflation. If such an indicator exists, it would need to perform adequately under a wide variety of economic conditions and changing economic structures, because no country faces an unchanging economic environment. One way to test for such robust performance is to examine the value of indicators across a variety of countries experiencing different economic conditions, financial structures, policy shifts, and so forth.> Kozicki first discusses why several widely used indicators might predict inflation. She explains how the predictive performance of these indicators can be compared and reports empirical results for 11 developed economies, including the United States. She concludes that while monitoring the change in GDP growth is useful on average across countries, no single economic indicator is always reliable. This evidence supports an approach to policymaking that involves monitoring a wide range of economic indicators.