Population Age Structure, Intergenerational Transfer, and Wealth: A New Approach, with Applications to the United States
利用1987年美国数据，通过合成队列方法研究代际转移如何影响真实财富与转移财富，发现转移财富约为真实财富的2/3以上，且社会保障和公共债务等转移财富可能挤占物质资本，降低劳动生产率并推高利率。
This paper focuses upon intergenerational transfers overlapping generation models generational accounting and life cycle saving while assuming golden rule steady states and stable age profiles of transfers and economic activity. Using 1987 US data synthetic cohort methods were employed to explore how resource allocation over the life cycle generates real wealth and transfer wealth through the family public sector and financial markets. While data problems assumption violations and accounting framework shortcomings would not permit firm conclusions transfer wealth in the US nonetheless seems to be about 2/3 greater than real wealth. Social Security wealth Medicare wealth and government debt are the main positive forms of wealth and together have greater value than real wealth. Transfer wealth must therefore displace holdings of physical capital and lead to lower labor productivity and higher interest rates.