Commodity Market Outlook and Trade Implications Indicated by FAPRI Analysis
基于FAPRI模型，预测至1990年代中期小麦、粗粮和大豆的市场价格、供需及贸易，指出发展中国家面临人均消费压力，尤其是非洲，并区分了快速发展和贫困国家的进口增长原因。
A commodity market outlook for wheat, coarse grains, and soybeans is evaluated for the period through the mid-1990s. The projections are based on assumptions about economic growth and agricultural policies that closely resemble current conditions. The projections include world market prices as well as supply, demand, and trade in these key commodities. The evaluation includes detailed breakouts of coarse grain and wheat production, consumption, and trade in major developing countries and regions.\nAlthough grain price projections show stable or declining levels in real U.S. dollars, pressure on per capita consumption remains a problem, especially in Africa. Also, although some of the strong import growth in rapidly growing developing countries is a sign of dynamic economic performance, import growth in many poor countries is an unfortunate necessity brought about by meager growth in agricultural production relative to rapid growth in population.