The Price Effect of Lottery Bond Redemptions
重新检验了Gørtz和Balling关于丹麦债券市场效率的研究，发现他们使用了错误数据，而正确数据显示彩票债券赎回存在价格效应，尽管弱于预期，但1976年后与实际变化吻合。
An investigation of the efficiency of the Danish bond market by G0rtz & Balling, The missing prince effect of lottery bond redemptions (1977), is reexamined in this paper. Most bonds on the Danish market are real estate mortgage annuity bonds amortized by lottery drawings twice a year. G0rtz & Balling pointed out that, contrary to what could be expected, the prices of bonds were not affected by the semi-annual drawings. We show that G0rtz & Balling considered the wrong data, so that nothing can be concluded from their investigations. When the right data were used, the expected price effect showed up, although weaker than expected. However, conditions changed in 1976, and since then the realized price effect corresponds very well to the expected change.