Anticipated Devaluations, Currency Flight, and Direct Trade Controls in a Monetary Economy
解释了为何面临国际收支逆差的国家不愿贬值货币而偏好使用关税、配额等直接贸易管制，原因在于预期贬值会引发资本外逃，而直接管制可抵消其影响。
mendation for a country facing a balance of payments deficit, this advice is often resisted by country governments. Instead, direct trade controls such as tariffs, quotas, and subsidies are frequently used. In this paper I propose an economic explanation for the reluctance to devalue and the use of trade controls, namely, the flight that can be expected to occur if the devaluation is anticipated. In an effort to avoid or offset the effects of this currency flight, countries may use direct controls. I shall analyze the properties of using import tariffs and export subsidies, with or without an anticipated devaluation, to affect the balance of payments and obtain the social optimum.'