Advanced solar R&D: Applying expert elicitations to inform climate policy
结合经济学与决策分析，通过专家启发法评估先进太阳能光伏技术变革前景，并将结果输入综合评估模型，为气候政策提供概率信息。
Both climate change and technical change are uncertain. In this paper we combine economics and decision analysis to incorporate the uncertainty of technical change into climate change policy analysis. We present the results of an expert elicitation on the prospects for technological change in advanced solar photovoltaics. We then use the results of the expert elicitations as inputs to the MiniCAM integrated assessment model, to derive probabilistic information about the impacts of RDO32; Q54; Q55; Q58