Education, Marriage, and First Conception in Malaysia
利用1988年马来西亚家庭生活调查数据，构建教育、婚姻与首次生育的联立方程模型，发现离校后结婚风险上升，且随教育水平提高而减弱；婚后首次受孕等待时间很短，婚姻年龄是生育推迟的关键因素。
The aim of this study is to construct an empirical model explaining the relationships between school status marital status and first birth. Data are obtained from the 1988 wave of the Malaysian Family Life Survey. The sample is restricted to only females and Malay Chinese or Indian ethnic groups. Equations are constructed for education continuation the marriage rate and the timing of first birth. Each of the three equations expresses one or more of the other factors. The estimation approach follows the maximum likelihood and simultaneous hazard models of Lillard and the sequential choice model of education of Lillard and Willis. All three models control for unobserved heterogeneity. The modeling of the endogeneity of education and marital status was statistically significant but the impact did not dramatically change the estimates. All models included controls for age birth cohort parental characteristics ethnicity urban residence and the availability of potential mates. The results of the full preferred model show a shift in the hazard of marriage at the end of enrollment which depends upon the time since leaving school and the level of education completed. The size of the shift was reduced at higher levels of completed schooling. There was a low hazard of marriage while in school. There was a significantly higher hazard of marriage for women with no education. The hazard of marriage declined over time particularly for earlier birth cohorts. The cohort trend toward later age at marriage was accounted for by the cohort trend in enrollment and completed education. Large changes in educational level did not account for the ethnic differences in timing of marriage. The waiting time to first birth after marriage was very short regardless of marriage age. In the full model marriage age was a key determinant of the cohort trend toward later births. Chinese and Indians had a lower hazard of first conception and differences were attributed to the timing of marriage. When marital status and education were controlled Indians conceived more quickly than Malays. Parental characteristics were found to be key determinants of school continuation.