Estimating the Peace Dividend: The Impact of Violence on House Prices in Northern Ireland
利用北爱尔兰各地区和不同时期的暴力事件数据，估计和平进程对房价的影响，通过马尔可夫转换模型量化和平红利。
This article exploits data on the pattern of violence across regions and over time to estimate the impact of the peace process in Northern Ireland on house prices. After establishing a negative correlation between killings and house prices, we estimate the parameters of a Markov switching model with conflict and peace as latent states. We use the model to estimate the size of the peace dividend as captured in house price changes.