The Timing and Persistence of Fiscal Policy Impacts on Growth: Evidence from OECD Countries
使用同时处理短期动态和长期模型的回归方法，发现财政政策对增长的长期效应通常在短期内实现，且持续增长或下降在OECD国家中罕见。
The literatures testing for aggregate short-run or long‐run growth impacts of fiscal policy use quite different methodologies. The former generally focuses on temporary fiscal ‘shocks’; the latter typically have no short‐run dynamics or assume homogeneity. We use regression methods that treat heterogeneous short‐run dynamics explicitly within a long‐run model. Results suggest that previously estimated ‘long‐run’ growth effects of fiscal policy are typically achieved quickly, consistent with results from short‐run models. In principle these short‐run effects ‘persist’; in practice regular fiscal policy changes in OECD countries mean that persistent increases or decreases in growth rates are rare.