Uncertainty at the Zero Lower Bound
研究了当政策利率处于零下限时，不确定性对消费、通胀和产出的影响更大，并发现不确定性会使深度衰退中的产出下降加剧约10%。
When the policy rate is at the zero lower bound (ZLB), an increase in uncertainty regarding the future path of exogenous shocks alters the conditional expectations of relevant prices facing households and firms. Accordingly, an increase in uncertainty alters consumption, inflation, and output to a greater extent when the policy rate is constrained than otherwise. Using an empirically rich sticky-price model calibrated to match key features of the US economy, I find that uncertainty can exacerbate the decline of output by about 10 percent in a deep recession that pushes the policy rate to the ZLB.