Cohort Size and the Academic Labor Market
质疑了用队列规模变化预测学术劳动力市场短缺或过剩的模型，通过分析经济学家学术劳动力市场模型，指出这些预测对政策制定几乎没有帮助。
Educational policymakers have long been concerned that baby booms and busts alternately cause shortages and surpluses in academic labor markets. These concerns have been supported by models which purport to forecast the effects of change in cohort size on the academic labor market. In this paper it is argued that policymakers should be more skeptical of such forecasts. The basis for the argument is a detailed analysis of a model of the academic labor market for economists. The inescapable conclusion is that forecasts from such models provide little, if any, support for policies designed to offset the impact of change in cohort size on the academic labor market.