Real Exchange Rates, National Price Levels, and the Peace Dividend
从理论和实证上分析裁军（削减军费）如何影响一个开放经济中可贸易品与非贸易品的资本劳动配置、相对价格以及国家价格水平，发现裁军会导致实际汇率小幅贬值和价格水平轻微下降。
The crumbling of the Berlin Wall in Germany in 1989, the dismantling of Communist Party control of Central and Eastern European governments in 1990, and the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 have created the opportunity for substantive reductions in military expenditures in the United States and Europe. This paper addresses conceptually and empirically some of the issues surrounding the potential structural impacts of disarmament upon an open economy's allocation of capital and labor between tradable and nontradable goods, upon the relative price of tradables and nontradables, and upon the nation's price level relative to a world average. Theoretically, the effects of military spending reductions on these variables is ambiguous: the effects depend upon the relative factor intensities in production of civilian versus military goods and those of civilian tradable versus nontradable goods, as well as upon the relative importance in utility of civilian tradable versus nontradable goods. Empirically, the model suggests that the effects of disarmament on the relative demand for and relative supply of nontradables to tradables are economically and statistically significant. However, because military spending reductions will tend to increase the relative supply only slightly more than the relative demand, their relative price (i.e., the real exchange rate) is predicted to decline by only a small amount. Consequently, lower military expenditures are predicted to result in a small real depreciation of a country's currency and, thus, only a minor fall in the national price level relative to the world average.