Will Farmland Values Keep Booming
分析了当前农田价值飙升的原因，并与1970年代和1990年代的农业繁荣进行对比，探讨其可持续性及潜在风险。
Lean supplies, strong export activity, and vibrant demand both at home and abroad have pushed crop prices to record highs, offsetting today’s spiraling production costs. As a result, farm profits and investments have soared, and farmland values have boomed. But commodity markets in agriculture can change directions abruptly—and so agricultural bankers and farm analysts naturally question the sustainability of today’s prosperity. The current agriculture boom is strikingly similar to those of the 1970s and mid-1990s, when the good times quickly faded as crop supplies increased, the dollar strengthened, and export activity weakened. One particular danger is that rising farmland values could be accompanied by greater financial leverage, increasing the industry’s vulnerability to a drop in income, as in the 1980s. This article discusses current farmland value trends and analyzes the factors underlying the recent surge. Section I compares the current