A General Equilibrium Model of Insurrections
构建了一个叛乱的正向理论，将叛乱及其威慑或镇压视为与生产竞争稀缺资源的经济活动。一般均衡框架揭示了劳动时间在叛乱、士兵和生产之间的分配以及农民与统治者客户之间的收入概率分布如何取决于叛乱技术。核心结果是，更多时间用于叛乱且叛乱成功概率更高的均衡虽然生产和总收入更低，但农民预期收入可能更高。
This paper develops a positive theory of insurrections that treats insurrection and its deterrence or suppression as economic activities that compete with production for scarce resources. The general equilibrium analytical framework reveals how the allocation of labor time among insurrection, soldiering, and production and the probabilistic distribution of income between the peasant families and the ruler's clientele both depend on the technology of insurrection. A central result is that equilibria with more time allocated to insurrection and a higher probability of a successful insurrection have lower production and total income, but nevertheless can have higher expected income for the peasants. Copyright 1991 by American Economic Association.