Increasing Returns, Industrialization, and Indeterminacy of Equilibrium
研究在制造业存在递增报酬导致多重稳态的工业化模型中，调整过程如何影响长期结果，发现自我实现的预期常使经济摆脱前工业化状态，并用全局分岔技术分析发展陷阱与起飞路径。
This paper asks whether adjustment processes over real time help to "select" the long-run outcome in a model of industrialization, where multiple stationary states exist because of increasing returns in the manufacturing sector. "History" alone cannot in general determine where the economy will end up. Self-fulfilling expectations often make the escape from the state of preindustrialization (the takeoff) possible. The global bifurcation technique is used to determine when an underdevelopment trap exists and when a takeoff path exists. The role of government policy and agricultural productivity in industrialization are then considered.