How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence
通过调查新西兰企业，发现企业对宏观经济的信念存在广泛分歧，尤其是对通胀；企业以贝叶斯方式更新信念，且信念变化影响决策，但通胀被认为对商业决策不重要，因此企业投入较少资源收集通胀信息。
We survey New Zealand firms and document novel facts about their macroeconomic beliefs. There is widespread dispersion in beliefs about past and future macroeconomic conditions, especially inflation. This dispersion in beliefs is consistent with firms’ incentives to collect and process information. Using experimental methods, we find that firms update their beliefs in a Bayesian manner when presented with new information about the economy and that changes in their beliefs affect their decisions. Inflation is not generally perceived as being important to business decisions so firms devote few resources to collecting and processing information about inflation.