Time-to-Build and Aggregate Fluctuations: Some New Evidence
对Kydland和Prescott（1982）提出的模型进行最大似然估计和检验，发现单一不可观测指数能解释总体变量波动，但若将其视为技术冲击则无法很好解释人均工时，且时间可分偏好与数据一致。
This paper presents maximum likelihood estimates and tests of a model similar to one Kydland and Prescott (1982) suggested. For this purpose, it derives equilibrium laws of motion for a set of aggregate variables as functions of the model's parameters and the innovation to the technology shock. The paper shows that a single unobservable index can explain the variability in the observed series, but identifying the single index with the innovation to the technology shock implies that per capita hours is not well explained. It also shows that time-separable preferences with respect to leisure are consistent with the data. Copyright 1989 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.