Empirical Tests of the Life Cycle Hypothesis: Comment
评论White(1976;1978)认为多期生命周期模型无法产生足够大的总储蓄值的观点,指出其参数选择任意,其他合理参数下模型可产生类似或更大的储蓄值,因此不能基于简单合理性检验拒绝该模型。
This comment examines the contention of Betsy Buttrill White (1976; 1978) that a multiperiod life cycle model cannot generate values of aggregate savings as large as in fact observed. I argue that her results reflect an entirely arbitrary choice of parameters and that for other equally plausible values of these parameters, the life cycle model generates saving similar to or greater than that actually observed. Hence, the model cannot be rejected, as White proposes, on the basis of such a simple test of plausibility. It should be noted at the outset that the argument of this paper is distinct from that of Lars Soderstrom (1982), who accepts White's basic result, and then shows that if the structure is generalized (to incorporate stochastic lifetimes), the result is not robust. My argument here is that White's contention is incorrect, when examined on its own terms.