Insurgency and Small Wars: Estimation of Unobserved Coalition Structures
提出两种基于每日地理编码袭击数据的方法，用于识别冲突地区叛乱组织间的隐藏联盟，并应用于阿富汗（2004-2009）和巴基斯坦（2008-2011）的案例。
Insurgency and guerrilla warfare impose enormous socio‐economic costs and often persist for decades. The opacity of such forms of conflict is an obstacle to effective international humanitarian intervention and development programs. To shed light on the internal organization of otherwise unknown insurgent groups, this paper proposes two methodologies for the detection of unobserved coalitions of militants in conflict areas. These approaches are based on daily geocoded incident‐level data on insurgent attacks. We provide applications to the Afghan conflict during the 2004–2009 period and to Pakistan during the 2008–2011 period, identifying systematically different coalition structures. Applications to global terrorism data and identification of new groups or shifting coalitions are discussed.