Measuring Foreign Supply Response to Changes in U.S. Prices: An Argentine Example
提出一种方法衡量外国供给对美国价格变化的反应，并以阿根廷大田作物为例，考虑出口税和营销利润的内生性，计算价格传递弹性，分析总种植面积和作物份额如何受价格影响。
The paper proposes a method to measure foreign supply response to changes in U.S. prices and applies the method to Argentine field crops. Argentine export taxes and marketing margins are endogenized, and price transmission elasticities are calculated. Total area harvested is a function of weighted farm prices, and crop shares are a function of relative prices.\nOne important concern during the course of debate on the 1985 Farm Bill was how farmers in other countries were likely to respond to changes in U.S. Policies. Those arguing for policies which would reduce commodity prices contended that lower prices would be a major disincentive to foreign production. On the other hand, those favoring price-increasing policies contended that little additional foreign production was likely to result from higher prices.\nThis paper will outline a method to measure foreign supply response to changes in U.S. commodity prices, and the approach will be applied to the case of Argentine field crops. It will be argued that the proper measurement of foreign supply response requires consideration of the likely response o foreign governments, traders and farmers to changes in world prices. The model developed here links U.s. and Argentine farm prices, and allows for cross-commodity effects.