Inflation Persistence and Optimal Monetary Policy in the Euro Area
构建欧元区优化主体模型，发现各国通胀持续性存在差异：德国通胀前瞻性强，其他国家惯性大。基于此，评估四种货币政策规则在贸易条件冲击下的福利效果。
In this paper we present an optimizing-agent model for the euro area to emphasize how the existence of heterogeneity in inflation persistence across regions matters for the design of monetary policy. We find supporting evidence of the existence of such a heterogeneity in inflation dynamics across euro area countries. In particular, based on the estimation of New Keynesian Phillips Curves for five major countries of the euro area, we find that inflation in Germany has a dominant forward-looking component, while in the other group of countries inflation show a significant inertial (backward looking) behavior. Under this circumstance, we study the welfare implications of four monetary policy rules following terms-of-trade shocks: fully optimal, optimal inflation targeting, HICP targeting, and output gap stabilization.