Financial Structure and Economic Activity
在一般均衡框架下整合货币理论，利用库兹涅茨和戈德史密斯的跨国与历史数据，分析金融结构、产业份额与人均收入的关系，揭示金融中介在经济发展中的作用。
A recent development in economic science is the attempt to integrate monetary theory with the theory of general economic equilibrium. This work takes as its starting point the idea that money cannot have value in standard, general equilibrium models. In these, too much trade can be accomplished in centralized markets (see Robert Clower, 1969, 1971; Frank Hahn, 1973; or Neil Wallace, 1980). Thus, to decentralize or break up the structure, either exchange must be made costly or there must be restrictions on who can trade with whom, and thus such choicetheoretic models offer the intriguing possibility that real and monetary phenomena can be understood as intimately related. This paper continues in the relatively brief, choice-theoretic tradition, motivated by real and monetary phenomena associated economic development and growth: 1) To be noted first is Simon Kuznets' seminal work on national income (1971). In a cross-section study of fifty-seven countries in 1958, Kuznets shows that the share of the agricultural sector, including forestry, fishing, and hunting, in Gross Domestic Product is inversely correlated with Gross Domestic Product per capita. The share of the industrial sector, including transportation and communication, is closely and positively associated with per capita product. The share of the service sector tends to be positively but weakly associated with per capita product, but the share of banking, insurance, and real estate shows a striking rise as one shifts from lowto higher-income countries. Moreover, the evidence suggests that the ratio of industrial prices to agricultural prices is perhaps lower the higher is per capita income, though the evidence on relative prices for the service sector is inconsistent. Turning to long time-series for thirteen developed and four less developed countries, Kuznets finds dramatic evidence for a decline of the agricultural sector and a rise in the industrial sector with per capita income, at least in developed countries. Again, results for the service sector are mixed, but Canada, France, and the United States are positive exceptions. The share of a transport-communication subsector rises quite consistently. Turning next to shares of sectors in the labor force, Kuznets finds, both on a cross-sectional and secular basis, that all the above movements are at least mirrored and in many cases amplified. In particular, both components of the share of the service sector, services and commerce, rise substantially with Gross Domestic Product per capita. 2) To be noted second is the extensive work of Raymond Goldsmith on financial structure and financial intermediation. For the United States, Goldsmith (1958) finds that the activity of intermediaries, as measured by their share in national assets, in tangible assets, and in all claims, has shown a substantial rise from 1860 to 1952. Similarly, Goldsmith (1969) finds that the ratio of financial institutions' assets to Gross National Product rises substantially from 1860 to 1963 in both developed and less developed countries, including Switzerland, Great Britain, the United States, Japan, Argentina, and India. Related, the number of households with savings accounts, the number with life insurance policies, and the number with stock ownership expressed as percents of the population are all low for less developed countries relative to developed countries, and *Professor of Economics, Carnegie-Mellon University, Graduate School of Industrial Administration, Schenley Park, Pittsburgh, PA 15213. This paper was motivated by a conversation with Thomas Sargent and has been aided by helpful comments from Robert Barro, Robert E. Lucas, Jr., Dan Peled, Kenneth Singleton, and Neil Wallace. Financial support from the National Science Foundation, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, and the Peterkin Symposium on Foundations of Monetary Policy and Government Finance at Rice University, and research assistance from Pramerudee Townsend are all gratefully acknowledged. I alone assume full responsibility for any errors and for the views expressed here.