Determinants and Dynamics of Current Account Reversals: An Empirical Analysis
使用面板概率模型分析发展中国家和新兴经济体经常账户逆转的决定因素，发现经常账户余额、贸易条件、外汇储备和优惠债务是关键因素，且逆转存在序列依赖，主要由国家特定冲击驱动。
We use panel probit models with unobserved heterogeneity, state dependence and serially correlated errors in order to analyse the determinants and the dynamics of current account reversals for a panel of developing and emerging countries. The likelihood-based inference of these models requires high-dimensional integration for which we use efficient importance sampling. Our results suggest that current account balance, terms of trades, foreign reserves and concessional debt are important determinants of current account reversal. Furthermore, we find strong evidence for serial dependence in the occurrence of reversals. While the likelihood criterion suggest that state dependence and serially correlated errors are essentially observationally equivalent, measures of predictive performance provide support for the hypothesis that the serial dependence is mainly due to serially correlated country-specific shocks related to local political or macroeconomic events. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Department of Economics, University of Oxford, 2010.