Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts
回顾了货币政策效应的理论与证据，并基于多国多变量时间序列研究提出新证据，发现某些数据模式在各国间高度一致，但利率上升预测高通胀的倾向难以与有效货币政策相协调。
Existing theory and evidence on the effects of monetary policy are reviewed. Substantial room for disagreement among economists remains. New evidence, based on multivariate time series studies of several countries, is presented. While certain patterns in the data consistent with effective monetary policy are strikingly similar across countries, others, particularly the tendency of interest rate increases to predict high inflation, are harder to reconcile with effective monetary policy.