Output Dynamics in Real-Business-Cycles Models
检验真实商业周期模型能否复现美国GNP增长正自相关和趋势回归这两个典型事实，发现多数模型依赖外部冲击，而包含劳动调整成本的模型能部分成功但需要过大的暂时性冲击。
The time-series literature reports two stylized facts about output dynamics in the United States: GNP growth is positively autocorrelated, and GNP appears to have an important trend-reverting component. This paper investigates whether current real-business-cycle (RBC) models are consistent with these stylized facts. Many RBC models have weak internal propagation mechanisms and must rely on external sources of dynamics to replicate both facts. Models that incorporate labor adjustment costs are partially successful. They endogenously generate positive autocorrelation in output growth, but they need implausibly large transitory shocks to match the trend-reverting component in output.