Cross Sectoral Variation in the Volatility of Plant Level Idiosyncratic Shocks
估计美国制造业工厂层面异质性冲击的波动性,发现异质性冲击远大于总体冲击,占工厂面临不确定性的80%,且波动性在创造性破坏程度高的行业更大。
We estimate the volatility of plant–level idiosyncratic shocks in U . S . manufacturing. We measure the variation in Revenue Total Factor Productivity not explained by either industry or economy–wide factors, or by establishments’ characteristics. We find that idiosyncratic shocks are much larger than aggregate shocks, accounting for about 80% of the overall uncertainty faced by plants. Plants in the most volatile sector are subject to about six times as much idiosyncratic uncertainty as plants in the least volatile. We provide evidence suggesting that idiosyncratic risk is higher in industries where the extent of creative destruction is likely to be greater.