The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions
研究了油价冲击在多大程度上导致美国经济衰退，特别关注净油价上涨的放大作用，并比较了线性模型与净油价增长模型的拟合效果。
Abstract Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for explaining U.S. recessions, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price shocks explain recessions. We provide a formal analysis of this question with special attention to the possible role of net oil price increases in amplifying the transmission of oil price shocks. We quantify the conditional effect of oil price shocks in the net oil price increase model for all episodes of net oil price increases since the mid‐1970s, analyze its determinants, and show that the linear model fits the data better.