Local Labour Markets and Theft: New Evidence from Canada
利用2007-2011年加拿大合成面板数据，发现低技能失业率上升会显著增加年轻男性的盗窃犯罪率，工具变量估计的弹性在0.357到0.654之间。
Abstract This paper provides causal evidence that labour market opportunities affect theft‐related crime rates in Canada. Synthetic panel data from 2007–2011 combine the Labour Force Survey and Uniform Crime Reports microdata. Low‐skill unemployment rates and corresponding crime rates are measured for age‐city‐specific groups of young males. IV estimates exploit the exposure of low‐skill employment to exogenous demand for exports to the US. Causal estimates of the elasticity of theft‐related crimes with respect to low‐skill unemployment range from 0.357 to 0.654. The use of aggregated unemployment rates appears to bias OLS estimates downward. IV estimates are found to mitigate this aggregation bias.