Conflict, Climate, and Cells: A Disaggregated Analysis
利用网格数据集，分析了1997-2011年非洲次国家级内战，发现农作物生长季的负面气候冲击会持续影响冲突发生，且冲突会向邻近区域扩散。
We conduct a disaggregated empirical analysis of civil conflict at the sub-national level in Africa over 1997-2011 using a new gridded dataset. We construct an original measure of agriculture-relevant shocks exploiting within-year variation in weather and in crop growing season, and spatial variation in crop cover. Temporal and spatial spillovers in conflict are addressed through spatial econometric techniques. Negative shocks occurring during the growing season of local crops affect conflict incidence persistently, and local conflict spills over to neighboring cells. We use our estimates to trace the dynamic response to shocks and predict how future warming may affect violence.