The Design of Reform Packages Under Uncertainty
建立了一个大规模经济改革模型，比较了“大爆炸”式改革与渐进式改革方案，发现渐进式改革更易启动，最优顺序应创造支持后续改革的利益群体，且因等待的期权价值更低而可能激发更多投资。
The authors present a model of large-scale economic reforms, modeled on the transition process in Eastern Europe, with aggregate and individual uncertainty concerning the outcome of reforms. The government is assumed to choose the speed and sequencing of reforms. The authors compare big-bang strategies with gradualist reform packages. They show that gradualist reform packages may be easier to get started, optimal sequencing of reforms should aim at creating constituencies for further reforms, and gradualism may generate a higher investment response because of a lower option value of waiting than would a big-bang approach. Copyright 1995 by American Economic Association.