Nominal GDP Targeting Rules: Can They Stabilize the Economy?
通过统计模拟分析名义GDP目标规则在美国经济中的表现，发现简单的名义GDP目标规则未必能改善经济绩效，对政策制定者具有参考价值。
As the monetary aggregates have become less reliable guides for monetary policy, considerable interest has developed in identifying some other fundamental guide for policy. Many analysts argue that the best guide might be nominal gross domestic product (GDP). Some of these analysts also argue the Federal Reserve should target nominal GDP using one of several possible rules. Such a rule would specify how the Federal Reserve should adjust policy to affect a short-term interest rate in response to deviations of nominal GDP from target.> Clark examines the performance of nominal GDP targeting rules using statistical simulations of the economy. First, he reviews the argument that policymakers should target nominal GDP using a rule. Second, he describes some alternative targeting rules. Finally, he shows how these rules would perform based on simulation analysis of models of the U.S. economy. He concludes that policymakers cannot be certain that a simple nominal GDP targeting rule would improve economic performance.