Rational Expectations, Informational Efficiency, and Tests Using Survey Data: A Reply
回应了关于理性预期假说的检验问题，指出使用个体预期数据而非截面均值作为回归变量会引入测量误差，并强调预期与完全信息效率的区别对宏观经济学模型至关重要。
even if it does not eliminate them completely. The primary effect of using individual expectations data rather than cross-sectional averages as a regressor is to introduce additional measurement error. Finally, the distinction between expectations and full informational efficiency is more than a semantic one. The failure to make this distinction seems to be the cause of substantial confusion in the literature. The distinction has become increasingly important with the advent of expectations macroeconomic models (see Lucas, 1973; Barro, 1976) which are driven by imperfections and asymmetries of information, yet in which each economic agent is assumed to process rationally the information he possesses. In particular, empirical tests which depend upon full informational efficiency can provide little evidence on the validity of the rational expectations hypothesis as that term has come to be used in macroeconomics.