The Rise and Fall of Asylum: What Happened and Why?
调查了过去20年发达国家庇护申请先增后减的趋势，通过回归分析发现暴力和恐怖是主要驱动因素，而更严厉的政策仅解释了2001年以来约三分之一的下降。
In the last 20years, developed countries have struggled with a rising tide of asylum seekers, a trend that has now reversed. This article examines what happened and why. It surveys the trends in asylum seeking and the literature that this has generated. It provides new regression estimates of the determinants of asylum applications up to the present. The key findings are that violence and terror can account for much of the variation and that, while tougher policies did have a deterrent effect, they account for only about a third of the decline in applications since 2001.