Changes in economic instability in 19th-century America
利用结构向量自回归模型分析19世纪美国经济波动加剧的原因，发现战后时期经济周期更严重是由于对货币冲击的敏感性增强，而非冲击本身变大。
In contrast to the twentieth century, over the nineteenth century economic fluctuations became increasingly severe. This paper uses a structural vector autoregression estimated on ante- and postbellum data to distinguish the influences of changes in the nature or magnitude of the disturbances from those of changes in the response of the system to shocks (i.e., changes in structure) in contributing to this increased economic instability. The increased cyclical severity in the postbellum period is found to have been the result of greater sensitivity to monetary disturbances, rather than of larger or more volatile shocks. Copyright 1993 by American Economic Association.