UK Real‐Time Macro Data Characteristics
分析了16个英国常用宏观经济指标的初步测量值与后续修正值之间的关系，发现多数初步测量存在偏差且部分修正序列有结构性断点，并利用向量自回归模型生成实时概率预测，指出忽略初步测量可预测性会低估产出增长高于趋势的概率。
We characterise the relationships between preliminary and subsequent measurements for 16 commonly-used UK macroeconomic indicators drawn from two existing real-time data sets and a new nominal variable database. Most preliminary measurements are biased predictors of subsequent measurements, with some revision series affected by multiple structural breaks. To illustrate how these findings facilitate real-time forecasting, we use a vector autoregresion to generate real-time one step ahead probability event forecasts for 1990Q1 to 1999Q2. Ignoring the predictability in initial measurements understates considerably the probability of above trend output growth.