DO FLOODS HAVE PERMANENT EFFECTS? EVIDENCE FROM THE NETHERLANDS
研究了1953年荷兰大洪水对人口增长的短期和长期影响，发现洪水本身影响有限，但防洪工程（Deltaworks）反而促进了洪泛区人口增长，暗示防洪措施可能引发道德风险。
ABSTRACT This study investigates the short‐ and long‐run impact on population dynamics of the major flood in the Netherlands in 1953. A dynamic difference‐in‐differences analysis reveals that the flood had an immediate negative impact on population growth, but limited long‐term effects. In contrast, the resulting flood protection program (Deltaworks), had a persisting positive effect on population growth. As a result, there has been an increase in population in flood‐prone areas. Our results suggest a moral hazard effect of flood mitigation leading to more people locating in flood‐prone areas, increasing potential disaster costs.