The Value of Weather Information in Market Equilibrium
用理性预期竞争模型证明，更准确的天气预报在需求缺乏弹性时反而会损害农民福利，因为信息改善可能促使农民平均减产，导致价格不利变化。
Abstract Increased accuracy of weather forecasts does not necessarily increase commodity supply or farmer welfare. This study presents a stylized model of competitive production with rational expectations and demonstrates that improved weather information harms farmers facing an inelastic demand. Contrary to the conclusions of previous studies, the decline in farmer welfare does not require an expansion in expected supply. Better weather information may signal farmers to produce less on average under an inelastic demand. A supply decrease occurs when increases in the physical productivity of applied inputs are dominated by adverse price consequences.