Environmental indivisibilities and information costs: fanaticism, agnosticism, and intellectual progress
指出环境问题中信息成本高、确定性低，因此不能轻易否定生态灾难警报，即使警报者显得狂热；同时生态系统可能比想象中更稳健，研究应持续资助以获取宝贵知识，并保持开放心态以应对未来信息。
This analysis suggests several distinctive policy recommendations about environmental problems. One is that some of the alarms about ecological catastrophes cannot simply be dismissed, even when some of those who sound the alarms seem almost fanatic. The information needed to be sure one way or another is simply lacking, and may not be attainable at reasonable cost for a long time. We are therefore left with inevitable risk. Ecological systems could also be incomparably more robust than the alarmists claim, so we might also be worrying needlessly. The implication for environmental and ecological research is that we should not exprect that it will produce conclusive information, but should fund a lot of it anyhow. If previous research has produced few compelling results, valid information about these problems is scarce and therefore more valuable. The harvest of research in the areas characterized by indivisibilities is then poor but precious knowledge. If it is important to be able to change behavior quickly, when and if we finally get the information that the ecosystem can't take any more, then it is important that we have the open-mindedness needed to change our views and policies the moment decisive information arrives. Those who shout wolfmore » too often, and those who are sure there are no wolves around, could be our undoing.« less