Bayesian Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Analysis and Returns to Compulsory Schooling
用贝叶斯方法处理模糊断点回归设计，利用1947年英国义务教育离校年龄从14岁提高到15岁的政策变化，估计多上一年学对后续收入的影响，对劳动经济学和计量经济学研究者有参考价值。
Summary This paper is concerned with the use of a Bayesian approach to fuzzy regression discontinuity (RD) designs for understanding the returns to education. The discussion is motivated by the change in government policy in the UK in April of 1947, when the minimum school leaving age was raised from 14 to 15—a change that had a discontinuous impact on the probability of leaving school at age 14 for cohorts who turned 14 around the time of the policy change. We develop a Bayesian fuzzy RD framework that allows us to take advantage of this discontinuity to calculate the effect of an additional year of education on subsequent log earnings for the (latent) class of subjects that complied with the policy change. We illustrate this approach with a new dataset composed from the UK General Household Surveys. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.