Wage Expectations in the Labor Market: Survey Evidence on Rationality
利用企业直接观察到的工资预期数据，发现企业的工资预测普遍不满足弱式理性预期的无偏性和效率要求，系统性地低估实际工资，且未有效利用历史信息。
Using a new set of directly observed wage expectations among firms, this paper finds that in general firms' forecasts fail the unbiasedness and efficiency requirements of weak-form rational expectations. These market participants consistently underestimate the wages they actually end up paying, and their expectations do not efficiently utilize the information in past realizations. The mean absolute forecast error of two percent compares with an error of only five percent if static expectations were held. The major source of wage fore-cast error seems to be errors in predicting demand, rather than in predicting supply or the general price level. Wage forecast errors are positively correlated across fields with distinct supply patterns, and are positively correlated with quantity forecast error. The properties of stochastically weighted expectations and the effectiveness of the wage and price controls of the early 1970's are also discussed.