The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts
通过回归方法比较三组事前预测（ASA、DRI、WEFA）与三种模型预测的信息含量，帮助研究者判断不同预测来源的优劣。
The informational content of different forecasts can be compared by regressing the actual change in a variable to be forecasted on forecasts of the change. We use the procedure in Fair and Shiller (1987) to examine the informational content of three sets of ex ant. forecasts: the American Statistical Association and National Bureau of Economic Research Survey (ASA), Data Resources Incorporated (DRI), and Wharton Economic Forecasting Associates (UEFA). We compare these forecasts to each other and to quasi ex ante forecasts generated from a vector autoregressive model, an autoregressive components model, and a large-scale structural model (the Fair model).