Inflation perceptions and expectations in Sweden – Are media reports the missing link?
研究了瑞典消费者对通胀的感知、预期与实际通胀率之间的关系，发现感知与预期互动强烈，而实际通胀影响较小；媒体报道影响虽小，但会导致预期和感知对通胀上升和下降消息的不对称反应。
Abstract We analyze the interrelation between consumers' quantitative inflation perceptions and expectations as well as actual inflation rates in Sweden. The role of media reports about inflation is emphasized. Structural vector error correction models show stable cointegration between actual, perceived and expected inflation. Impulse responses and forecast error variance decompositions suggest strong interaction between perceived and expected inflation, with a lesser role for actual inflation. Media effects are generally small, but imply an asymmetric reaction of inflation expectations and perceptions to news on increasing vs. decreasing inflation. Thus, to anchor inflation expectations, central banks should explore better communication channels to inform consumers about actual inflation.