Ex Ante Evaluation of Drought‐Tolerant Varieties in Eastern and Central Africa
研究建立模型估算肯尼亚、乌干达和埃塞俄比亚阿姆哈拉地区玉米、高粱和小米耐旱品种的潜在收益，包括平均产量提升和产量稳定带来的风险收益，对消费者和不同规模生产者均有显著效益。
Abstract This study presents a model to estimate potential benefits of drought‐tolerant varieties of maize, sorghum and millet in Kenya, Uganda and the Amhara region of Ethiopia. In addition to the benefits from mean yield increases, the model takes into account risk benefits associated with yield‐stabilising varieties. Ex ante estimates provided for different drought zones and for different household types within drought zones of each country suggest that drought resistance generates substantial benefits from both mean yield improvements and yield variance reductions for both consumers and small, medium and large producers.