Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints (Revised Version)
构建了一个包含房产阶梯和信贷约束的生命周期模型，揭示年轻家庭首付能力（尤其是收入）是住房市场的关键驱动力，并解释收入变化如何导致房价过度波动和量价正相关，利用英美数据提供实证支持。
We propose a life-cycle model of the housing market with a property ladder and a credit constraint. We focus on equilibria which replicate the facts that credit constraints delay some households' first home purchase and force other households to buy a home smaller than they would like. The model helps us identify a powerful driver of the housing market: the ability of young households to afford the down payment on a starter home, and in particular their income. The model also highlights a channel whereby changes in income may yield housing price overshooting, with prices of trade-up homes displaying the most volatility, and a positive correlation between housing prices and transactions. This channel relies on the capital gains or losses on starter homes incurred by credit-constrained owners. We provide empirical support for our arguments with evidence from both the U.K. and the U.S.