Demand Variability, Supply Shocks and the Output-Inflation Tradeoff
研究美国过去三十年通胀率与真实产出增长率关系的变化，评估三种解释的相对重要性：新古典观点、供给冲击（如能源价格）以及通胀波动对自然产出率的影响。结论是供给冲击和通胀波动起了重要作用，而新古典观点没有。
This paper examines the shift in the relation between the inflation rate and the rate of growth of real output which has occurred in the United States over the past three decades, and attempts to assess the relative importance of three possible lines of explanation: a) the new classical view of the output-inflation tradeoff, initially specified by Lucas;b) the effect of supply-side shocks, such as energy prices; c) the effect of inflation variability on the natural rate of real output, as hypothesized by Milton Friedman. The paper concludes that b) and c) seem to have played a significant role in the observed shift from a positive to a negative correlation between the rate of inflation and the rate of real output growth, but that a) did not.